Master CraftsMon - Aired Monday, January 16, 2006 at about 11pm CST - Segment 3
Master CraftsMon - Aired Monday, January 16, 2006 at about 11pm CST
Segment 3
When you start talking about some group trying to take over the world, you start sounding crazy. Your arguments start sounding idiotic because the world is a kind of big place. Besides there have been so MANY movies where the villain says that he's bent on taking over the world. People have stopped believing in the possibility.
I draw your attention back to the Nazis. They honestly though they could do it. They honestly thought they could take over the world. The philosophical reasoning for Nazis taking over the world was pretty shallow when you get right down to it.
On the other hand, radical Islam is absolutely convinced that the Koran promises them world domination. Whether the Koran actually promises world domination or not does not change the fact that to radical Islam, that is the truth. When someone is convinced they are right based on religious grounds, how exactly do you logically argue them out of their position when they are emotionally wedded to that idea? The answer is you don't. Logic and emotion don't work together really well.
You have to understand the thinking on the side of radical Islam. As the population becomes more Islamic, the disaffected children will flock to their cause. I draw your attention to the riots in France. The Youths who were doing all the car-b-ques were influenced by their religious leaders. The French got off easy and they know it. Three to five thousand cars were burned, but few died. The number of cars burned each night is now down to below 100. Oh, you didn't know that. Oh, yeah, the youths burn about 100 per night. Not all in one area, but nationwide about 100 cars burn each night. Isn't that SPECIAL?
Look how this will unfold. As the percentage of people adhering to Islam increases through birth rates, all the members of radical Islam have to do is keep up the pressure on the West. If we cannot get them to stop, that will be taken as a sign of weakness by the Islamic children growing up feeling disenfranchised. Again, radical Islam believes that according to their interpretation of the Koran, Muslims should be the ones on top and everyone else forced to convert OR those not converting become second class citizens. By radicalizing the youth, Al Qaeda and groups like them can grow and overtop any country that isn't willing to fight. At least that is their long term strategy.
It all comes down to whether you can believe that any organization or group of people can carry on a fifty year war. I could give you examples of wars lasting that long, but I will not. I'll just point out that radical Islam does not have to have major victories in the next fifty years to win; they just have to keep up the pressure.
I draw you attention to Saddam Hussein. Anyone who examines the outcome of Gulf War I has to come to the conclusion that Saddam was trounced. Almost all his military equipment was destroyed in 100 hours of war. What did the Arab street think of Saddam? They thought he was fantastic, because he was still in power. Women started naming their kids after him.
All that radical Islam has to do is hover around out at the edges of Western Civilization and avoid getting destroyed. In about fifty years they will be able to walk in and take over any country they want, because so many of their youths will agree that they are powerful enough to do it.
Now... that presupposes that the West does nothing.
What can we do now that will pay of strategically in fifty years?
This is where it gets funny by my standards. We need to convince the vast majority of the people of Islam that democracy and the rule of law and separation of church and state is a good idea... which is what Bush is doing. Strategically the Iraq war was a good idea, because it has shown any member of Islam who wants to think about it that a democracy CAN improve their lives.
However, here is where it gets really funny by my standards. While we're focusing on the Middle East, Central and South America are falling back into the arms of socialism. The U.S. promoted democracy and the rule of law south of the border for 20 years. We started getting results. Now Venezuela, Bolivia, Brazil and Nicaragua are set to slide back into dictatorship. All these countries have failed to reap the benefits of capitalism, democracy and the rule of law that they were promised, so they assume that they can get a better deal with socialism and dictatorship.
Anyway. Islam is on the march. As I said, after 400 years of being relegated to the fringes of modernity, they are fed up. Although the members of radical Islam are small right now, they perceive that they can keep up the pressure for fifty years and win in the end because they will be the majority at that point, not the West.
Again, it all has to do with friction. We have to make their playing field so chaotic that they cannot win. The best analogy I can give is police work. Police do not stop crime. They simply make it too hard for criminals to be successful. Rudolf Guiliani came to power in New York City. He very quickly decided to implement the 'broken windows' approach to police work. The theory goes that you come down hard on small crimes and the big crimes start decreasing. If a building has a broken window and no one fixes it, then criminals start breaking other windows. Pretty soon, the entire building is unlivable. Criminals respond to incentives.
If we refuse to meet radical Islam face on and contest them on the small terrorist acts, then we shall get big terrorist acts. Osama bin Laudin did not appear out of the blue when George Bush was made President. Despite what you may believe that is not the truth. We have lost about 2500 people in Iraq. We have freed a people. The despots in that part of the world are very frightened, because they fear that Iraq will become a thriving place like Germany became a thriving place, like Japan became a thriving place and like South Korea became a thriving place. They are frightened that their people will ask for the same treatment from their governments that the Iraqi are getting from theirs.
In order to win fifty years from now, we need to have an alternative narrative. The jihadis have been very good at staying on message. They appeal to the local audience and set the stage for continuing to push their agenda. The caliphate is a utopian dream, but it is also something that existed at one time. All they have to do is not be defeated and they can create the caliphate or so they suppose. Remember: Defeat is in the mind, not the body. Radical Islam has set a goal. If they can stay on message continue to fight, for fifty years they can outgrow the West to the point that we can be assimilated. That is what they believe.
The problem the jihadis are having is that Albert Gore was NOT elected President and John Kerry was not elected President, so we will continue opposing them and making them actually be ineffective. Right now they are perceived by the press and the Arab street as being very effective. The jihadis on the ground know they are not being effective. Again, they do not have to win, they just have to stay in the game for fifty years and they can achieve their goals.
If we as Americans had simply treated the jihadis as vandals and ignored them as we have ignored radical Islam since the Berlin Olympics, then could have made the case to the generation of Islamic youth coming up that all they had to do is stay the course and the caliphate was just over the hill. It was going to arrive real soon. Yep, just stay the course and things will get better.
That's not what happened. Most people don't know this, but Afghanistan was a massive defeat for the jihadis. Thousands of Muslims responded to the call to repel the infidel from Afghanistan. Pakistanis, Kasmiris, Yemenis and some Muslims from other parts of the world marched into Afghanistan hoping to repel the invaders. Not too many marched back. Some villages had 90% casualties. The ones that did make it back brought the message that the U.S. was not easily fought. That's why you don't her much out of Afghanistan. The Taliban was defeated. Again, defeat is in the mind, not the body.
In Iraq, we did not defeat the Sunnis. The French got to the Turkish parliament and bought off enough votes to make sure the 4th Army didn't attack Tikrit. Had they done that. A huge number of the jihadis and Saddam's thugs would have died right then. The mopup would not have been as bad as it has been.
As it is, Iraq is a going concern. Unemployment is down from 60% to 26%. Businesses are thriving. Electricity is becoming more abundant. Iraq is slowly coming back online. We don't hear much about that. Only the military blogs and Fox cover that type of news. To hear the BBC or CNN, Iraq is at war in every province. Fighting is occurring in only four provinces out of eighteen.
Iraq as it is has been a great place to draw the jihadis out and kill them. As distasteful as that is to contemplate, the alternative is chase them all over the world hoping to catch up to them. Iraq has been a series of what seem to be tactical victories for radical Islam. The problem they face is that, if Iraq succeeds as a nation state, they have to explain to their followers why they are fighting for the Caliphate. I mean, if Iraq becomes a model for successful states in the area, why die to achieve the Caliphate? At least that is the question they will have to answer.
Segment 3
When you start talking about some group trying to take over the world, you start sounding crazy. Your arguments start sounding idiotic because the world is a kind of big place. Besides there have been so MANY movies where the villain says that he's bent on taking over the world. People have stopped believing in the possibility.
I draw your attention back to the Nazis. They honestly though they could do it. They honestly thought they could take over the world. The philosophical reasoning for Nazis taking over the world was pretty shallow when you get right down to it.
On the other hand, radical Islam is absolutely convinced that the Koran promises them world domination. Whether the Koran actually promises world domination or not does not change the fact that to radical Islam, that is the truth. When someone is convinced they are right based on religious grounds, how exactly do you logically argue them out of their position when they are emotionally wedded to that idea? The answer is you don't. Logic and emotion don't work together really well.
You have to understand the thinking on the side of radical Islam. As the population becomes more Islamic, the disaffected children will flock to their cause. I draw your attention to the riots in France. The Youths who were doing all the car-b-ques were influenced by their religious leaders. The French got off easy and they know it. Three to five thousand cars were burned, but few died. The number of cars burned each night is now down to below 100. Oh, you didn't know that. Oh, yeah, the youths burn about 100 per night. Not all in one area, but nationwide about 100 cars burn each night. Isn't that SPECIAL?
Look how this will unfold. As the percentage of people adhering to Islam increases through birth rates, all the members of radical Islam have to do is keep up the pressure on the West. If we cannot get them to stop, that will be taken as a sign of weakness by the Islamic children growing up feeling disenfranchised. Again, radical Islam believes that according to their interpretation of the Koran, Muslims should be the ones on top and everyone else forced to convert OR those not converting become second class citizens. By radicalizing the youth, Al Qaeda and groups like them can grow and overtop any country that isn't willing to fight. At least that is their long term strategy.
It all comes down to whether you can believe that any organization or group of people can carry on a fifty year war. I could give you examples of wars lasting that long, but I will not. I'll just point out that radical Islam does not have to have major victories in the next fifty years to win; they just have to keep up the pressure.
I draw you attention to Saddam Hussein. Anyone who examines the outcome of Gulf War I has to come to the conclusion that Saddam was trounced. Almost all his military equipment was destroyed in 100 hours of war. What did the Arab street think of Saddam? They thought he was fantastic, because he was still in power. Women started naming their kids after him.
All that radical Islam has to do is hover around out at the edges of Western Civilization and avoid getting destroyed. In about fifty years they will be able to walk in and take over any country they want, because so many of their youths will agree that they are powerful enough to do it.
Now... that presupposes that the West does nothing.
What can we do now that will pay of strategically in fifty years?
This is where it gets funny by my standards. We need to convince the vast majority of the people of Islam that democracy and the rule of law and separation of church and state is a good idea... which is what Bush is doing. Strategically the Iraq war was a good idea, because it has shown any member of Islam who wants to think about it that a democracy CAN improve their lives.
However, here is where it gets really funny by my standards. While we're focusing on the Middle East, Central and South America are falling back into the arms of socialism. The U.S. promoted democracy and the rule of law south of the border for 20 years. We started getting results. Now Venezuela, Bolivia, Brazil and Nicaragua are set to slide back into dictatorship. All these countries have failed to reap the benefits of capitalism, democracy and the rule of law that they were promised, so they assume that they can get a better deal with socialism and dictatorship.
Anyway. Islam is on the march. As I said, after 400 years of being relegated to the fringes of modernity, they are fed up. Although the members of radical Islam are small right now, they perceive that they can keep up the pressure for fifty years and win in the end because they will be the majority at that point, not the West.
Again, it all has to do with friction. We have to make their playing field so chaotic that they cannot win. The best analogy I can give is police work. Police do not stop crime. They simply make it too hard for criminals to be successful. Rudolf Guiliani came to power in New York City. He very quickly decided to implement the 'broken windows' approach to police work. The theory goes that you come down hard on small crimes and the big crimes start decreasing. If a building has a broken window and no one fixes it, then criminals start breaking other windows. Pretty soon, the entire building is unlivable. Criminals respond to incentives.
If we refuse to meet radical Islam face on and contest them on the small terrorist acts, then we shall get big terrorist acts. Osama bin Laudin did not appear out of the blue when George Bush was made President. Despite what you may believe that is not the truth. We have lost about 2500 people in Iraq. We have freed a people. The despots in that part of the world are very frightened, because they fear that Iraq will become a thriving place like Germany became a thriving place, like Japan became a thriving place and like South Korea became a thriving place. They are frightened that their people will ask for the same treatment from their governments that the Iraqi are getting from theirs.
In order to win fifty years from now, we need to have an alternative narrative. The jihadis have been very good at staying on message. They appeal to the local audience and set the stage for continuing to push their agenda. The caliphate is a utopian dream, but it is also something that existed at one time. All they have to do is not be defeated and they can create the caliphate or so they suppose. Remember: Defeat is in the mind, not the body. Radical Islam has set a goal. If they can stay on message continue to fight, for fifty years they can outgrow the West to the point that we can be assimilated. That is what they believe.
The problem the jihadis are having is that Albert Gore was NOT elected President and John Kerry was not elected President, so we will continue opposing them and making them actually be ineffective. Right now they are perceived by the press and the Arab street as being very effective. The jihadis on the ground know they are not being effective. Again, they do not have to win, they just have to stay in the game for fifty years and they can achieve their goals.
If we as Americans had simply treated the jihadis as vandals and ignored them as we have ignored radical Islam since the Berlin Olympics, then could have made the case to the generation of Islamic youth coming up that all they had to do is stay the course and the caliphate was just over the hill. It was going to arrive real soon. Yep, just stay the course and things will get better.
That's not what happened. Most people don't know this, but Afghanistan was a massive defeat for the jihadis. Thousands of Muslims responded to the call to repel the infidel from Afghanistan. Pakistanis, Kasmiris, Yemenis and some Muslims from other parts of the world marched into Afghanistan hoping to repel the invaders. Not too many marched back. Some villages had 90% casualties. The ones that did make it back brought the message that the U.S. was not easily fought. That's why you don't her much out of Afghanistan. The Taliban was defeated. Again, defeat is in the mind, not the body.
In Iraq, we did not defeat the Sunnis. The French got to the Turkish parliament and bought off enough votes to make sure the 4th Army didn't attack Tikrit. Had they done that. A huge number of the jihadis and Saddam's thugs would have died right then. The mopup would not have been as bad as it has been.
As it is, Iraq is a going concern. Unemployment is down from 60% to 26%. Businesses are thriving. Electricity is becoming more abundant. Iraq is slowly coming back online. We don't hear much about that. Only the military blogs and Fox cover that type of news. To hear the BBC or CNN, Iraq is at war in every province. Fighting is occurring in only four provinces out of eighteen.
Iraq as it is has been a great place to draw the jihadis out and kill them. As distasteful as that is to contemplate, the alternative is chase them all over the world hoping to catch up to them. Iraq has been a series of what seem to be tactical victories for radical Islam. The problem they face is that, if Iraq succeeds as a nation state, they have to explain to their followers why they are fighting for the Caliphate. I mean, if Iraq becomes a model for successful states in the area, why die to achieve the Caliphate? At least that is the question they will have to answer.
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